With the recent decline in the price of seamless steel pipes, the disk has seen cost support and high discounts. The current rhythm is that spot declines have increased, but futures declines have slowed. The key to how to ultimately repair the premium is when the spot will stop falling and the inventory will accumulate.

Issues such as inflation and trade friction have hampered global economic growth. In the medium and long term, weak demand will put pressure on the domestic economy, and the impact of trade friction on economic growth will gradually ferment. The overall decline in industrial products in the near future is generally large. In the context of the continued sharp decline in crude oil, industrial products are also weakening. From November 1 to November 12, the wind power industry's closing price index showed a negative growth. The fluctuations of non-metallic building materials, chemicals, coal coke, and color plates were -3.57%, -3.16%, -2.99%, -2.74%, and -0.67%, respectively.

The market is worried about the pessimism of the macro economy next year, especially the real estate industry. Since 2016, the real estate sales area has shown a downward trend. In 2018, the new real estate construction area has achieved an equal footing. It rose for five consecutive months and rose by 0.5 percentage points from January to August. 16.4%. However, in the context of continued weakness in the sales sector, the market believes that this continued sluggish sales will be passed on to real estate investment and new construction. Coupled with the country's real estate high-pressure policy, people's concerns about the turning point of real estate have gradually deepened. As the core industry of the current real economy, real estate, once there is a turning point, may increase the pressure on the current economic downturn.

On the supply side, this year's winter heating season is looser than last year's heating season. In the case of high-speed operation of steel mills, the market is worried about the rapid accumulation of seamless steel pipe inventory in the later period.

Whether it is the statistics of the Bureau of Statistics, the China Iron and Steel Association or the domestic steel production professional website, it has shown a rapid growth trend in 2018. Under the stimulation of high profits, steel mills have various ways to increase production, increase capacity utilization, and continuously increase crude steel output. In such a high-yield background, once demand slows or stagnates, the phase imbalance between supply and demand can easily lead to rapid growth of inventory, bringing huge inventory pressure to the market.

On the demand side, recent demand shows signs of gradual decline. Since the end of October, market transactions have continued to weaken and the off-season effect has begun to emerge. As the weather in the north gets colder, the slowdown in demand will continue, and eventually the demand for seamless steel pipes in the winter terminal construction site in the northern region will be stagnant. The overall demand in winter has stagnated, requiring traders to conduct winter warehousing to digest market resources. However, the current spot price is relatively high, traders' willingness to store in winter is weak, and the enthusiasm of terminals and traders is weak. Traders are generally worried that if the current price is for winter storage, the Spring Festival after the price decline will suffer huge losses in the coming year. This has happened since the Spring Festival in 2017. Driven by both supply and demand, the catalytic market is pessimistic about the growth of libraries.

Judging from the current situation, the market has a strong wait-and-see attitude, and seamless steel pipes may turn into an oscillating trend.