China Broadcasting Network Beijing October 10 news The US Department of Commerce announced on the 7th to launch anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations on seamless steel pipes imported from China. The previous day, the EU Council of Ministers decided on the 6th to impose a final anti-dumping duty of 17.7% to 39.2% on China's seamless steel pipes exported to Europe. Analysts believe that the US International Trade Commission will make a preliminary ruling around November 2, and once approved, China's seamless steel pipe may lose the world's largest export market. The United States once again set trade barriers to China. Where will the Sino-US trade dispute go? Mei Xinyu, an associate researcher at the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, analyzed this.
US trade barriers against China have a long history
The United States has set trade barriers against China recently because of concerns from cases such as tire special protection and today's seamless steel pipes, but the United States has set trade barriers to China. Since Nixon’s visit to China in 1972 and the return of normal trade between China and the United States, the two sides began to trade. The negotiation of the problem. When Mei Xinyu talked about the history of the United States setting trade barriers against China, he believed that this was a long-standing problem. "At that time, China's foreign trade ministers Li Qiang and George W. Bush had no less wandering for Chinese textiles."
Can't assert that it is the second round of the US counterattack on tires.
Some people think that this US move may be in response to restrictions on China's counter-terrorism special protection case, such as the import of US cars, and the Sino-US trade war may be upgraded. In this regard, Mei Xinyu believes that this is not a bad assertion is the second round of the US counter-attack on the tire special protection case. He analyzed that in accordance with the US anti-dumping system, after the US company filed an anti-dumping complaint, the Ministry of Commerce and the International Trade Commission conducted an investigation. The International Trade Commission was responsible for determining whether the US industry was substantially damaged, and the Ministry of Commerce was responsible for determining the extent of dumping. The Ministry of Commerce decides whether to initiate an investigation within 20 days. The International Trade Commission makes a preliminary damage award within 45 days. The Ministry of Commerce makes a preliminary dumping ruling within 160 days, a final dumping ruling within 235 days, and the International Trade Commission makes a final damage ruling within 280 days. He believes that there are many US companies and industries that file complaints with the government, far more than the industry that the US government decided to initiate investigations. The US Department of Commerce initiated investigations on seamless steel pipes only because they think the case seems to be available for them to use. More, but it does not mean that all complaints agree to initiate an investigation. As for the results of the preliminary and final rulings, there is still uncertainty.
Dealing with trade disputes, China needs to formulate countermeasures from three aspects
In the current situation, how should China respond? For this problem, Mei Xinyu believes that countermeasures can be formulated in the short, medium and long term. In the short term, China only needs to respond positively. China has accumulated a wealth of experience as the largest anti-dumping target country for more than a decade, and it is no longer a big problem to deal with the challenges of both sides. In the medium term, China also needs to continue to maintain a free trade system and moderate trade retaliation under a multilateral and regional framework to deter the protectionist forces within the trading partners. In the long run, we must promote the diversification of our market and reduce the lethality of trade protectionism.
If the United States wins its steel industry will be more competitive
Although the current preliminary and final ruling on the trade dispute is still unclear, if the United States wins the case. Mei Xinyu said that it will add to the blow of China's seamless steel pipe production enterprises, but it will not constitute a devastating blow, because China's steel products mainly do not rely on export markets, but rely on domestic sales, and the proportion of exports is not high. But the actions of these two countries have caused huge disruption to the trading environment, and this invisible loss is difficult to quantify.
As for the United States, its steel industry has consistently failed to advance after World War II and relied heavily on trade protection measures to survive. At the end of 2002, the United States was implementing about 179 trade protection measures for steel products, accounting for 58% of all trade protection measures, and many “New” trade protection measures are also first applied to the steel trade. However, all these trade remedy measures have not promoted the technological innovation and production efficiency of the US steel industry. In terms of adopting advanced continuous casting methods, production efficiency, and investment construction efficiency, large US joint steel companies lag behind all other major western countries. National counterparts. If this trade dispute wins, they will make them more lazy and uncompetitive.
Appeal can prevent trade protectionism from expanding but not eliminating
Since the G20, the international community has been calling for the prevention of trade protectionism, but the current situation does not seem to have weakened, but it continues to heat up. Mei Xinyu believes that the period of economic crisis will inevitably exacerbate trade protectionism. Such an appeal cannot eliminate protectionism and can only prevent its expansion from getting out of control. With these appeals, an analogy might have caused 300 and 400 trade frictions to be reduced to 100.